news like a duvet

There is a political story that perhaps not a lot of Canadians are paying much attention to. On Thursday, Michael Ma, an Ontario MP of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) crossed the floor giving the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) one more seat, and bringing them very close to changing the nature of parliament - going from a minority to a majority.

There are numerous reasons for at least one more CPC MP to cross:

1. That Ma, and earlier D'entremont both crossed means ths next person is going as part of a group, and not so much as an individual, making it psychologically easier to cross
2. This CPC floor crosser will no longer have to behave in a very specific way with Poilievre as CPC leader, which could mean a breath of fresh air
3. The very next CPC that crosses brings the LPC to have a majority government which makes it so that an election now would only be in 3-4 years so the crosser gives them self (and every other MP) a full term in government. If it stays a minority, there could be an election as soon as this coming spring.
4. Both Ma and D'entremont came from ridings where the vote was split very close to 50/50, and so if the CPC crosser comes from a similarly split riding, it is easier to tolerate as about half the electorate wanted an LPC member anyhow
5. If the crosser is crossing so that more of the bills being propose pass through the House, this crosser helps to accelerate this as with a majority, there are enough votes to pass everything the government puts forward, if every LPC member votes accordingly

In Canada's history there have been floor crossings infrequently and sporadicly and never in a situation that it would be possible to move a government to or from a majority. With two members already having done this in the last six weeks, and with parliament suspended for six weeks due to the Christmas holiday closure, there is plenty of time for CPC members who were on the fence, to check in with their constituents to see how it would be received if the member crossed.

On Power & Politics that I watch regularly, the analysts have mentioned that some LPC members, including PM Carney, are speaking with those CPC members that are considering the change. So I, along with all of the political media people, are paying close attention over the next six weeks to see if there is one more crosser, and the likelihood seems pretty high.