Tuesday, October 27, 2020

up then down then wrong

I've been researching my retirement.

It may be in eight years from now.

There are a few dependencies, for example, obtaining the proceeds of the sale of the house, how well the market does, what inflation does and how successful I am at continuing to save and stay employed throughout these next eight years.

Once I do get the proceeds of the sale of the house I am debating about enlisting Ed Rempel to help me with a retirement plan. I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around the 5000$ it will cost to have him build a plan for me. The big question is whether his plan will gain me 5000$ more than whatever plan I can come up with.

There are a few questions I have that his plan will help me to answer. 

For example

  • If I can manage to save 18.5% of my income over the next eight years on top of what I have already saved, is that enough? Or do I need to see if I can do 19 or 20%
  • At what age ought I to start QPP and OAS? What age would be most beneficial?
  • Are the accumulation investment choices I have made good or do they need some tweaking?
  • What are the decumulation steps I need to take making use of his self-made dividend strategy?
  • What would be a way to optimize taxes?

Some questions I need to answer myself is what I am going to do once I retire.

I definitely want to be available to my children, if any of them ever have children. At the moment I haven't a car, but once I have any grandchildren I would consider getting one so that I can help ferry them about as needed, or to get to where they are living to baby-sit.

I've started to make a list of how I figure I could spend my time:

Daily

  • Walk at least 5km
  • Exercise routine of body weight exercises
  • Write a blog post 
  • Practice piano

Weekly

  • A trip into the city
  • One visit each with specific friends and family 

Periodically

  • MeetUp Ping-Pong (this one I hope to start sooner, once the pandemic is over)
  • MeetUp walking group (this one I had been part of before pandemic and would continue doing)

Of course on top of that is all of the volunteering I would do. Very little of what I've listed above costs anything, my goal is to have the lowest costs possible which would allow for an earlier retirement.

Also, in the early years, I would want to take one major vacation trip every other year alternating with minor trips. Or, instead of the alternating plan, when the market is up and my investments have done well, major trip; in off years, minor trip or no trip.

Examples of major trips could include a lengthy cruise with balcony cabin, a trip to Europe or Eastern Asia or spending three to five weeks somewhere warm during the winter.

Examples of minor trips would be to go for a few days to the Tremblant area, going to watch an NFL or NBA game (or both) in person, or taking the train down to Coburg and spend a few days at the beach there.

There is a ballpark analysis that says to multiply your monthly spending needs by 12 to get what you'd need in a year, and multiply that by 25 to adhere to the 4% withdrawal rule. Using today's dollars I am spending roughly 1900$ a month, 23,000$ per year so I'd need a 575,000$ investment portfolio.

If my vacation trips were to cost 5000$, once a year, then I'd be spending 28,000$ per year requiring a portfolio of 700k$.

So, house sale, investment growth, inflation, stay employed and keep my savings rate up. Then I can see what year I can retire.

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